Don’t expect a green Christmas, as it’s more likely going to be yellow, orange, or even red, according to the region’s medical officer of health.
Dr. Charles Gardner delivered a cautionary address today to those living in the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit's jurisdiction.
“For now we’re in the yellow status … with our data, if it keeps going up … we may find ourselves in the orange status,” he said Tuesday during his weekly briefing via Facebook live. “I think that’s an important heads-up.”
The doctor is referring to the province’s COVID-19 Response Framework, which sets out restrictions that tighten from green to yellow to orange to red levels before a full lockdown.
The Simcoe-Muskoka region has been put in the yellow “protect” zone. The restrictions for yellow status include reduced hours for restaurants, prohibiting liquor service after 11 p.m. and reducing the number of people who can sit at a table at a restaurant to six people.
The yellow status also dictates smaller class sizes for fitness and recreation facilities (10 people) unless they are sports teams – which can be up to 50 people for indoors and 100 people outdoors, but the leagues must be a “cohort” and not include other teams/leagues.
The provincial framework also outlines the indicators (virus spread, health-system capacity and public health capacity) that would put a region in each colour status.
Considering the last seven days worth of data published by the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, the region meets the criteria set out for orange status.
In Simcoe-Muskoka, the per cent positivity rate is 1.9 per cent, the weekly incidence rate is 30.1 cases per 100,000 people (up from 18.8 the previous week), and the doubling time (the number of days it takes for the number of cases to double) is 44.8 days.
“I would point out that if we continue now with a higher incidence rate of cases and we continue with a higher per cent positivity, we would meet the criteria for orange ‘restrict’ status,” said Gardner.
The provincial criteria states a region could be placed in the orange status with a weekly incidence rate between 25 and 39, a per cent positivity between 1.3 and 2.4 per cent, and a reproductive rate of 1 to 1.1. (It’s 1.2 in Simcoe-Muskoka.)
“Indicators will generally be assessed based on the previous two weeks of information,” notes the provincial framework. “However, movement to apply measures will be considered sooner than two weeks if there is rapidly worsening trend.”
The province is the authority that would decide whether to move a region to a new status within the framework.
The Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit has reported 190 new COVID cases in the last seven days, which is the highest seven-day record for the region since the pandemic began.
Gardner said there are 217 active cases in the region and 12 outbreaks, including six institutions, three workplaces and two educational settings. Those outbreaks range from a single case to more than 70 cases.
The health unit has also reported cases linked to family clusters – that is families from multiple households gathering together. Public health staff have seen clusters in Simcoe County that have resulted in up to 11 cases, with the average being five cases linked to a family cluster.
When asked if he expected the region or more of the province to be in the province’s green zone by Christmas, Gardner said he “doubted that very much.”
“I think it will take a great deal to flatten the curve,” he said. “We could end up with much higher levels of transmission by December.”
Restrictions listed in the orange status of the province’s framework prohibit the sale of alcohol after 9 p.m., require restaurants to close by 10 p.m., and reduce the number of people per table to four. Strip clubs must close in an orange status, while further capacity restrictions would also be put in place at recreational facilities and no spectators would be permitted for sports except parents for supervision of children.
Orange restrictions also prohibit any personal care services that require removal of face coverings.
“I believe we need to take steps to protect our population from COVID-19 and this framework is meant to achieve that,” said Gardner. “We need to work through those levels and abide by them. If we’re meeting the criteria for going up to another level, we need to do that.”
The doctor further stated he didn’t want to wait too long for further restrictions because that would make it harder to bring things under control.
The other indicators measured by both the province and the health unit relate to the capacity of local health care systems and public health to deal with the pandemic. According to the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit, both of those are in danger of becoming overwhelmed.
The region’s hospital acute bed occupancy rate is over 80 per cent and that’s not due to COVID patients. The health unit is reaching about 86 per cent of confirmed COVID cases within a day of their test result and is reaching about 84 per cent of high-risk contacts within a day. The goal is 90 per cent for both.
The province’s indicator for capacity states if hospital capacity is increasing and public health capacity is “at risk of becoming overwhelmed” the region should move into orange status.
Gardner encouraged residents to follow his advice of limiting close contact to members of your household only, and for those who live alone to adopt a single household to join. He said to be vigilant about handwashing, physical distancing, and wearing a mask, no matter how much COVID fatigue you are feeling.
“Do what you can to reduce your risk,” he said.
For health unit regulations and recommendations related to reducing your risk of transmitting COVID-19, visit their website here.
