Editor's note: This article originally appeared on ParliamentToday, a Village Media newsletter devoted exclusively to covering federal politics.
One in five immigrants who land in Canada will leave within the next 25 years, particularly economic immigrants who play a large part in the country’s labour market, a newly released report suggests.
About a third of those who leave will do so within the first five years.
“These are not desperate people fleeing destitution for the comfort of Canada’s generosity. Rather, they are a globally coveted talent pool with global options,” the report says. “When we fail to retain newcomers, we are essentially helping them to contribute to another country’s success.”
This is the second instalment of a report on “onward migration” released by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC). Released on Tuesday, the document uses data from 2020, which it describes as being the “most recent” information while acknowledging the pandemic may have an impact on the data.
Of the 395,000 permanent residents Canada expects to have in 2025, the report projects a little over 3,200 will leave after one year, with about 25,500 leaving by 2030. About 18 per cent would leave within 25 years.
“Most of the immigrants leaving B.C., Ontario and Quebec were living in the big cities at the time of departure, but in the Atlantic provinces, for example, most of the people who are leaving lived outside of the big cities,” ICC CEO Daniel Bernhard said.
The report notes that more than half of all immigrants who come to Canada are considered “economic immigrants" and are hand-selected to fill labour shortages. International students are also more likely to leave, particularly those who don’t hold a secondary work permit, even if they are able to gain permanent residency.
“Canadians are bombarded with commentary telling them that high immigration levels are to blame for homegrown challenges including housing supply, inaccessible health care, crime, and even traffic,” Bernhard noted.
“Be careful what you wish for. This is globally coveted talent with global options. We need programs that entice them to stay, become active citizens and help fuel our economy.”
The ICC is recommending that provincial and federal governments develop strategies to address onward migration and integrate retention targets into policy.
50% francophone immigrants leaving Ontario
The ICC is also calling on governments, particularly in Quebec and Ontario, to expand integration services for francophone immigrants.
“Cumulative onward migration rates show that Canada is losing one-third of its francophone immigrant population over the long term,” the report says. “This issue is particularly pronounced in Ontario, where francophone onward migration rates are high compared to its intake of francophone immigrants.”
The ICC suggests the data shows Ontario is struggling to retain francophone immigrants, despite it being a priority for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Policymakers, the report says, should apply a “targeted approach to retaining immigrants in the first two years.”
“The most sobering implication is that the two categories of immigrants Canada prioritizes most, those are economic immigrants and francophones, are actually the least likely to make Canada their forever home,” Bernhard said.
