Don R. Campbell says he pegged Barrie as a real up and comer about ten years ago.
The senior analyst for the Real Estate Investment Network says there were a lot of skeptics but he remains an unabashed fan.
REIN’s new research report confirms Campbell's prediction and shows Barrie meets criteria on REIN’s Long-Term Real Estate Success Formula for a future stable real estate market.
A diverse economy combined with Barrie’s younger population, post-secondary growth, business-friendly policies, infrastructure and proximity to downtown Toronto make the city a potential real estate investment market for strategic investors, according to the report.
"If you're looking for a family-oriented lifestyle, with relative affordability but easy access to downtown Toronto, it's hard to go wrong with Barrie," said Campbell.
"If you're looking for lakeside access without all the crowds. If you're looking for a place to raise your kids and then have them go to university or post-secondary education, while staying in the same city - great place to choose."
REIN has been studying the real estate market across Canada for 25 years.
The Barrie report says demographics are a large part of the picture with Barrie's young, family-based population early in its peak earning and peak spending years.
Barrie has a median age of 37.2. Simcoe County is 42. The national average is 40.6.
And there are other factors.
"You've got the GO Train, which is a larger contributor than many people believe to the demand. Because frankly do you want to live in downtown Toronto or live in Barrie where an hour later you're sitting in your backyard by the lake at the end of work," said Campbell.
The GDP in a city the size of Barrie does fluctuate but that's a typical trend in a smaller city, he said, adding it brings jobs, next to zero vacancy and there's the fact Barrie is a government designated 'Place to Grow.'
"It's because of the combination of restrictive sprawl, a fantastic lifestyle, both winter and summer and here's the interesting thing for those who live in Barrie. I have to use the word 'relative' affordability compared to other cities along the GO Train line. The only city that's more affordable is Orillia but it's even further up and it doesn't have a GO Train," said Campbell.
These kudos for the city are just the latest in a string of glowing accolades for Barrie over the past year.
"It's great to be profiled in their reports," said Mayor Jeff Lehman.
"They had some really nice things to say about this city and we all know what a great place it is to live but it's nice to see that the investment community sees the value in Barrie."
Barrie is a lot more expensive that it was ten years ago and it's going to be a lot more expensive five years from now, according to the report.
But Campbell says with the city's 'strong leadership vision' it should be able to grow and still maintain it's small-town feel.
The report also affirms Barrie's reputation as an entrepreneurial hub with the trend of Millennials who are graduating choosing to stay in Barrie to run their startups.
"At the end of the year we're going to put out our top ten. What are the ten towns that are going to outperform in Ontario. Right now it's our estimation that Barrie is going to land in the top five which is really quite remarkable for a city its size - and it might even be higher than five," Campbell said.
REIN says it uses a telescope instead of a microscope as far as forecasting the direction of a real estate market and that allows the organization to be 'incredibly accurate' according to its senior analyst.
Advice for long term for Barrie-ites, as Campbell calls them?
He borrows a line from a Timbuk 3 song and says we should remember: Our future's so bright, we'll have to wear shades.
"If you sit back and compare Barrie to other lifestyle and other places around the province, you'll see that you're kind of living in a bit of a dream world and people are going to be discovering it over the next five years," he said.
"Just don't tell all the Torontonians," he joked. "They're all going to want to live there."
Read the REIN report on Barrie here http://info.reincanada.com/barrie-economic-fundamentals
