Local weather watcher David Brain says a ‘once-in-a-generation' storm is brewing for Christmas this weekend.
Brain says deep, cold air temperatures of around minus-25 Celsius are dropping down into the central region of the United States before curling up a storm that will drive right through Lake Huron.
“It’s going to stall out and pinwheel around the area of Orillia to North Bay,” he said. “It’s going to create a flow of northwest winds on Georgian Bay, and we are going to see a prolonged period of lake-effect snow.”
Brain says snow will be heavy enough at times to create "true blizzard" conditions.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see blizzard warnings issued for northern Simcoe (County) and southern Muskoka,” he said. “Winds will gust from anywhere between 60 to 100 kilometres an hour at times.”
The storm will start on Friday with rain, lake-effect snow and heavy winds. The storm will intensify into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, as well as Boxing Day.
Brain says the area could see a combined 80 to 125 centimetres of snow over the four-day stretch.
“All three computer models are consistent,” he said. “Here in Orillia, I could see us getting 60-plus centimetres of snow.”
Brain says the storm is being classified as a "weather bomb."
“For that to happen the pressure has to drop 24 millibars in 24 hours,” he explained. “This storm is going from 1,008 millibars to almost 965.”
The most snow Orillia has ever received on record in a 24-hour time period is 77 centimetres in December 1980.
“We won’t surpass that within 24 hours,” Brain said. “This is going to be a two- or three-day event where we are going to see anywhere from 15 to 30 centimetres on Saturday, another on Sunday, and maybe another on Monday.”
Right in the eye of the storm will be Midland, Gravenhurst and Severn Bridge. Brain says they could see 120 centimetres of snow this weekend.
When it comes to the accuracy of the forecast, Brain is fairly confident the powerful storm is coming.
“The models were actually showing this 10 days ago,” he said. “It’s been known that this storm is going to form somewhere; its exact track is the big question.”
Brain says he wouldn’t be surprised if local school boards cancel the buses on Friday. He also advises those hoping to travel this weekend for Christmas to stay home.
“Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are going to be brutal for driving,” he said.
