Year-over-year Ontario real estate prices are stable

Average prices for single-family homes in Ontario were up 0.9 per cent in December, compared to December of 2022, figures released by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Monday show. 

The numbers are seasonally adjusted and do not take inflation into account. Inflation, depending on what measure you choose, is running at between 3.1 and 3.5 per cent. 

On a provincewide basis, prices for condos were down by 0.7 per cent, and townhouses were up by 1.4 per cent. 

Nationally, sales volumes were livelier — they rose 8.7 per cent month-over-month in December — but  the MLS price index was up only 0.7 per cent year-over-year, roughly in line with Ontario. 

“Was the December bounce in home sales the start of the expected recovery in Canadian housing markets? Probably not just yet,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist.

"It was more likely just some of the sellers and buyers that were holding onto unrealistic pricing expectations last fall finally coming together to get deals done before the end of the year. We’re still forecasting a recovery in housing demand in 2024, but we’ll have to wait a few more months to get a sense of what that ultimately looks like.”

Locally in December in Simcoe County, single-family house prices were up just 0.2 per cent, condos were down 4.5 per cent, and townhouses were up 0.7 per cent compared to December of 2022, using seasonally adjusted numbers unadjusted for inflation. 

“While December did offer up a bit of a surprise in sales numbers to cap the year, the real test of the markets’ resilience will be in the spring,” said CREA chair Larry Cerqua.

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